Oliveira Opens as Massive Underdog vs. Topuria at UFC 317 – Should Bettors Take Notice?
The oddsmakers have spoken, and they’re not giving Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira much of a chance. The former lightweight champion is walking into UFC 317 as a substantial betting underdog against the undefeated phenom Ilia Topuria this weekend in Las Vegas – but seasoned MMA fans know better than to count out the Brazilian submission specialist.
I’ve been covering MMA long enough to know when the betting lines might be missing something big. This could be one of those moments.
The Betting Landscape: Why Oliveira Is Being Overlooked
As of Tuesday, most sportsbooks have Oliveira hovering around a +300 underdog, with Topuria sitting comfortably as a -380 favorite. These numbers tell a story – the betting public and oddsmakers are all-in on the Topuria hype train after his stunning knockout of Alexander Volkanovski to claim the featherweight crown.
But let’s be real here: we’re talking about Charles Oliveira – the man with the most finishes (20) and submissions (16) in UFC history. The disrespect is palpable.
The X-Factor: Oliveira’s Championship Experience
What makes this matchup particularly intriguing is that Topuria, while undefeated and undeniably talented, is stepping into the cage with someone who’s been through the championship fires multiple times. Oliveira isn’t just another opponent – he’s a former champion who knows what it takes to perform on the biggest stage.
Remember when Dustin Poirier was supposed to steamroll him? Or when Michael Chandler had him hurt and nearly finished? Oliveira has made a career of proving doubters wrong.
Tale of the Tape: Oliveira vs. Topuria
| Fighter | Record | Age | UFC Finishes | Championship Fights |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 34-9 (1 NC) | 34 | 20 | 3 |
| Ilia Topuria | 15-0 | 27 | 6 | 1 |
“Do Bronx” Has Nothing to Lose
There’s something dangerous about a fighter like Oliveira in this position. When everyone expects you to lose, the pressure evaporates. I’ve seen it countless times – a veteran fighter, written off by the public, suddenly looks rejuvenated and plays the spoiler role perfectly.
“I’ve been the underdog my entire life,” Oliveira told reporters at the pre-fight press conference. “This is nothing new to me. I will shock the world again.”
And honestly? I believe him.
The Weight Class Factor
Let’s not forget that Topuria is moving up from featherweight for this bout. While he’s looked virtually unstoppable at 145 pounds, lightweight is a different animal altogether. Oliveira has been competing (and thriving) against bigger, stronger opponents for years in this division.
Size matters in this sport, and Oliveira will likely have a slight height and reach advantage on fight night – tools he’s masterful at utilizing to set up his legendary submission game.
Where Oliveira Can Exploit Topuria
- Grappling exchanges – Topuria has shown solid grappling, but nothing on Oliveira’s level
- Fighting off his back – Oliveira is perhaps the most dangerous guard player in UFC history
- Championship rounds – Topuria has never gone past the third round in his career
- Experience under the brightest lights – Oliveira won’t be rattled by the moment
Smart Money Opportunity?
For bettors looking at this matchup, the value on Oliveira at +300 is hard to ignore. We’ve seen him defy the odds repeatedly throughout his career, and his path to victory is clear: weather the early storm from Topuria and drag the fight into deep waters where his experience and submission prowess can take over.
I’m not saying mortgage your house on Oliveira, but a calculated wager on the Brazilian submission ace could potentially yield a handsome return if he pulls off what the bookmakers consider an upset.
The Bottom Line
Topuria deserves respect as the betting favorite – he’s undefeated, supremely confident, and coming off the biggest win of his career. But MMA has a funny way of humbling those who seem unstoppable, and few fighters in UFC history have been as consistently overlooked as Charles Oliveira.
Whether you’re betting on this fight or just watching as a fan, don’t be shocked if Oliveira reminds everyone why he’s one of the greatest lightweights of all time. Las Vegas may be counting him out, but the smart money knows better than to dismiss a dangerous veteran with nothing to lose.
UFC 317 goes down this Saturday night, and I can’t wait to see if the odds tell the true story – or if Charles Oliveira has one more stunning chapter to write in his remarkable career.
Source: Vox Media